Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Starting from the bottom


Starting over.

Some people love it, others can’t handle it.  All of us have to do it at one point or another, and yet so few people truly embrace it.

Starting over is scary.  I get it, but sometimes it can be the best thing for you.  Whether it’s in a personal relationship, a job or a new home, starting over gives you a blank slate to work from.

Rebuilding is a word that gets thrown around a lot in sports.  Believe me, I know.  The Mets and Bills have been “rebuilding” for more or less my entire life.  Sometimes it seems the rebuilding process is a tunnel without a light at the end of it.

But it’s a phase every team needs to go through.

It sucks to be bad but, in most sports, teams need to be bad for a while to get good again.  Practically every year we see a team in the NFL go from the bottom of their division to competing for a playoff spot.  Just last year we saw the Colts and Redskins rise from the cellar and make the playoffs.

This isn’t just true for the NFL.  In all of our major sports we see teams rise and fall.  It’s part of the cyclical nature of sports.  The length you spend on the top or the bottom relies in large part on how far ahead your team’s front office can see.  The best teams rebuild quickly and never spend too long at the bottom.

It’s tough for fans who are accustomed to having their teams at the top of their league go through a rebuilding process.  But eventually a rebuild needs to take place and, if I were in charge of either one of the following two teams, I would start the rebuild now.

That’s right, Lakers and Celtics fans.  You are the two most storied franchises in NBA history and I think it’s about time for both of you to take a step back.  I promise you there is no better time than right now to do this.

So let’s take a look at both squads and examine why both teams should be looking at the future, rather than the present.


Celtics

The Celtics, to their credit, have realized that their championship window is closed and have at least started the rebuilding process.

They signaled they were going into full rebuild mode when they traded coach Doc Rivers to the Clippers for a 2015 first round pick, a trade I applaud them for.  Doc didn’t want to be part of the rebuild and had no interest in coaching a young, growing team.  It’s a testament to their front office that they got a first round pick out of this situation.

But, Danny Ainge can’t stop here.  If you are going to rebuild you can’t go halfway.  That means any veteran player on the roster is available, especially aging stars Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Trading Pierce will no doubt sting as and moving Garnett may be difficult because of his no trade clause, but there are markets for both players.

This summer’s free agent market is particularly weak.  An extraordinary amount of teams have lots of cap room and will be left with no one to spend it on.  This means we could see a heavy trade market this summer.  This should create a market inefficiency the Celtics should be able to take advantage of.

The Celtics should look to acquire as many future assets as they can.  Young players and draft picks will give Boston plenty of cap flexibility moving forward and give them a chance to evaluate the young players they have.  This team isn’t close to competing for a championship and they should use next year to really take a look at what some of these young players can do.  They need to figure out if Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger, Jeff Green and Fab Melo are keepers.

If I’m the Celtics I also wait as long as possible to bring Rajon Rondo back because if I’m them, I want to be bad next year.  Not just bad I want to be one of the worst teams in the league next season.  Why?  Because next season’s draft class might be the best one we have ever seen.

This is something I don’t think enough people are talking about.  There might be 5 or 6 guys in next year’s draft that could immediately turn franchises around.  Andrew Wiggins is the best NBA prospect since LeBron James.  Julius Randle and Jabari Parker are monster wing players who can do it all.  Marcus Smart and Andrew Harrison have the potential to become franchise point guards and Aaron Gordon is a Blake Griffin clone (He even looks like him, freaky).

If you land a top five pick in next year’s loaded draft, the rebuilding process becomes much, much easier and if I were the Celtics that’s what I would be aiming for.  If some of their young guys develop, they get one of those top draft picks and Rondo comes back fully healthy, the Celtics could be back atop the Eastern Conference before too long.


Lakers

If I’m the Lakers, I’m also aiming to get into the top 5 of next year’s draft.  Let’s face it, the Lakers have one of the most expensive rosters in the league, with next to no roster flexibility at the moment, they barely made the playoffs this season and once they got there they were embarrassed by the Spurs.  They’re old and at this point not very good. Add to that Kobe Bryant is out until at least the all-star break with a torn Achilles and you soon realize they have a zero percent chance at winning anything next season.  

It’s time to hit the reset button.  I’d keep Kobe out the entire season to give him a chance to fully recover and to save his legs for the last few years of his hall of fame career.

I’d also pull the plug on the the Dwight Howard experiment.  I give them credit for making the move but it didn’t work and it’s time to let him.  It’s also time for Pau Gasol to leave La-La Land.  Even though he was hurt and had a down year last season, Gasol still has value.  The Lakers should look to move him and his salary for young players and draft picks.

The Lakers don’t have a single semi-exciting prospect on their roster.  None of their young players will turn into anything more than back-end rotation players and they have very few draft picks coming up to help replenish the team.  They need to fix this and the best way to do this is to move Gasol and Howard for picks.  Again a lot of teams have cap space and these players will be valuable.

The Lakers should be aiming to have max cap space available in the summer of 2014.  That summer could see a number of top NBA superstars like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony hit the open market and, unlike the Celtics, the Lakers have a history of luring top free agents to the City of Angels.  No one would bet against them convincing a superstar to join up with Kobe for one last run and if they can add a top pick from the 2014 draft to that duo, the Western Conference could be in trouble.


The Celtics and Lakers have reached a tipping point.  Both teams have experienced recent success and have a longer rope with their fan bases.  They need to take advantage of this and start the rebuilding process this season.  Starting over is never easy but with next year’s draft class being what it is, they need to take advantage of this opportunity.  If they do this right, these franchises will be back on top before too long.

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